The government has issued a forecast on Brexit, it says “Brexit will make us poorer than we would be staying in the European Union.”
The clip of the forecast were came from the conclusion of a cross-departmental government 15-year forecast.
The forecast was backed by these figures “How much poorer depends on which Brexit route the UK takes, but the most likely outcomes would mean a hit to the economy of £60bn and £100bn with a no-deal scenario costing nearly £200bn.”
The 82-page report looks at four main scenarios.
The government’s preferred outcome with frictionless trade; a standard free trade agreement, which means some friction at the border; a Norway-type arrangement, which would mean freedom of movement and ongoing rule taking; and finally, no deal.
On the first three it also looks at two immigration scenarios: the status quo – which is clearly not government policy – and zero net inflow from the EU.
The government’s white paper, with a change in immigration rules, leads to a hit of between 2.5% and 3.9% of GDP.
Crucially, the government has chosen not to model the impact of triggering the backstop arrangements to keep the Irish border open, which would see the UK stay in the customs union indefinitely.